The emergence of AI coding assistants such as GitHub Copilot, Amazon CodeWhisperer, and Claude 3.5 Sonnet has stirred debate about their long-term impact on software development. I’ve been in this game a while, which means I approach software innovation with a healthy dose of scepticism. I have seen lots of fashion trends — waves of developer productivity tools — some impactful, most not. From 4GLs to IDEs to low-code — each one promising to change the game, then fading into the background. Sound familiar? Every year there is somebody claiming they have a tool that can write your code for you. Is AI just the latest wave? I wondered if looking back at those old patterns — the hype, the crashes, the survivors — might tell us where this one’s going. Do those patterns from history tell me anything about the current trajectory of AI coding tools? The answer? Yes and no. Which, if you’ve ever worked in software, is probably the only honest answer you’ll get.
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